LPG Cylinder has been launched to take over Pipeline Gas distribution. Keeping in mind the difference between LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) and LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas), LPG is easier and safer to use than LNG. Natural fossil gas consumption has been raised in the last 3 decades and this has resulted in a shortfall of natural gas. By 2025, Pakistan is going to face acute Natural Gas shortage for production. Hyper rise in prices are expected in all production sectors including agriculture. Current gas reserves will last for 15 years, as ineffective usage of Natural Gas has widened the gap in demand and supply (Sattar, 2020).
SNGPL & SSGC Plans to Overcome Gas Demand
SNGPL and SSGC have planned doorstep provision of LPG cylinders due to significant shortage in Natural Sui Gas.
There are some new strategies of SNGPL and SSGC to meet the current demands;
Lets have Cost Comparison of tariff
One Year Journey of LPG Cylinder Cost Analysis
| Month Year | 11.8 kg Domestic Cylinder Price | 45.4 kg Commercial Cylinder Price |
| dec-2021 | 2390.44 | 9,198 |
| jan-2022 | 2320.81 | 8,930 |
| feb-2022 | 2439.93 | 9,388 |
| mar-2022 | 2758.67 | 10,614 |
| apr-2022 | 2916.11 | 11,220 |
| may-2022 | 2735.83 | 10,526 |
| jun-2022 | 2581.35 | 9,932 |
| july-2022 | 2600.97 | 10,008 |
| aug-2022 | 2571.41 | 9,894 |
| sep-2022 | 2496.30 | 9,605 |
| oct-2022 | 2374.25 | 9,135 |
| nov-2022 | 2409.16 | 9,270 |
| dec-2022 | 2548.29 | 9,805 |
Lets see the fluctuation through graph for over all analysis
No more SNGPL and SSGC Connections
Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGPL) has received 2.8 million applications with advance of Rs/25000- each (Tribune Express, 2022). New connections are banned by OGRA(Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority). OGRA has imported LPG storage tanks, bowzers, cylinders, dispensers, and conversion kits to enhance LPG provision at every door step. On the other hand, CNG usage is banned for all kinds of transports and considered illegal by the OGRA enforcement department according to Rule 2022.
Why ‘’no more connection’’ by SNGPL and SSGC
There are two main reasons why SNGPL (Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited) and SSGC (Sui Southern Gas Company Limited) are not giving new connections.
1. International Pressure
Pakistani cities are at the highest threat of air pollution and Climate change. Smog, Heatwaves in summers, Floods 2022 are just trailers of all future problems. Pakistani Government is underpressure of international organizations like UNDP (United Nations Development Programme), GAHP (Global Alliance on Health and Pollution), ESGP (Earth System Governance Project), FFF (Fridays for Future), GGGI (Global Green Growth Institute), IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature). These organizations demand continuous contribution to reduce usage of Natural Fossil Fuel for the sake of a clean and long lasting environment. On the other hand, LPG is a safe alternative for the environment.
2. Natural Fuel Reserves are Running out
OGDCL (Oil and Gas Development Company Limited) claims the rise in natural gas demands and consumption in the last two decades has increased threat to Pakistan’s Natural Gas Resources. This ineffective and excess usage has widened the gap of demand and supply. Pakistan is going to run out of Natural Gas within 15 15year (Sattar, 2020).
Quick history of Natural Gas
This graph shows a rise in usage from 1992 till 2013. The situation is more intense now. According to Data of CEIC, 2021, this is natural gas consumption graph from 2010 to 2021.
As gas is non-renewable resources by nature. major oil, gas and coal fields are given bellow in map
Rise in demand for natural gas and limited supply has created a shortfall of energy. Pakistan is going to face an intense gas production shortfall by 2025. All the production units including agriculture and transport will suffer an increase in energy cost due to the absence of cheap natural gas. The graph shows a declining trend for future gas production.
According to Energy Year Book 2015-2020, natural gas production showing declining trend from 2025 on-wards. Pakistani economy mostly depends natural gas. This is time to find other energy resources to support economy.
Gas Consumption and Related Sectors
This Pie chart shows gas consumption according to sectors in Pakistan.
According to a survey, agriculture, fertilizer production, industry, transport and thermal power are expected rise in demand for natural gas. By 2025, the natural gas demand-supply gap will affect all the main sectors. Due to expensive energy, finished products price will also rise.
Fertilizer production is the main part of agricultural production. If gas supply is decreased with time to fertilizers, just imagine the rise in cost of agriculture final products. Pakistan is agricultural country. Population of Pakistan cannot afford the rise in prices of daily Agri-products, as they are already under pressure of intense inflation and a decrease in the value of Pak-rupee.
OGRA has banned Transport sector use of CNG as fuel. Transport will be more dependent on oil or electricity in the coming time.
Thermal power current and the forecasted graph given below shows dependence on Natural Gas for cheap production of electricity.
More dependence on Natural Gas has resulted in decline in Natural Gas resources all over Pakistan. Inefficient and ineffective usage of Natural Gas in past shows underline performance and misutilization of by Government. This is time to find energy alternatives by stopping political traitors and focusing on Pakistan’s economic growth.
Conclusion
Inefficient and ineffective usage of natural gas has resulted in significant decline in Natural Gas resources in Pakistan. According to surveys and studies, Pakistan will face acute shortfall of Natural Gas from 2025 and Natural Gas will last for 15 years only (Sattar, 2020). This is time to find energy alternative to stabilize the economy in coming years. Thermal power, Fertilizers for agriculture, Domestic energy, Industries and Transport all depends on Natural gas. In the absence of Natural gas, Pakistani economy will suffer increase in production and finished good prices. If Pakistan fails to find alternate energy sources, there will be hyper inflation in every production sector.
To meet domestic energy crisis, Government has planned not to provide Natural Sui Gas connection any more. SNGPL (Sui Northern Gas Pipeline Limited) and SSGC (Sui Southern Gas Limited) has launched LPG cylinders at every door step as an alternative strategy, to meet domestic and commercial demands. These cylinders will cost about Rs/7500-(including security and first refill).
References
Rehman, S. A., Cai, Y., Mirjat, N. H., Walasai, G. D., Shah, I. A., & Ali, S. (2017). The Future of Sustainable Energy Production in Pakistan: A System Dynamics-Based Approach for Estimating Hubbert Peaks. Energies, 10(1858). 1858; doi:10.3390/en10111858
Sattar, S. (2020, Oct 24). Gas Sector in Pakistan, presented in PIDE Webinar on ‘The Gas System in Pakistan’. Retrieved Dec, 2022, from https://pide.org.pk/webinar/the-gas-system-in-pakistan/
Tribune Express. (2022, Sep 20). Govt asked to remove ban on gas connections. Express News. Retrieved Dec, 2022, from https://tribune.com.pk/story/2377443/govt-asked-to-remove-ban-on-gas-connections