Debates and contradictory statements on Pakistan’s food security problem have been rising during the last two decades, as it is going to become a really big problem for Pakistan. International organizations Maplecroft and Food & Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) claimed that Pakistan is one of those countries which are most affected by climate change and natural disaster, so there is the highest risk of food insecurity. But government statistics and statements are surprisingly showing careless results. At world Food day celebration 2022, a workshop was organized to evaluate the implementation of FAO’s action plans and avoid upcoming challenges. Workshop also aimed to identify the gaps and stakeholders engagement in the implementation of the National Action Plan.
Climate Change and Economic Instability:
Pakistan is struggling to achieve the basis of National Food Policy. Although Pakistan is producing less than 40% of its actual potential; due to inefficient R&D, less utilization of land and natural water resources, scarce supply of inputs and ineffective formal credit system (Hussain & Routray, 2012). Despite producing below potential, the country has been almost self-sufficient in most food commodities. As Pakistan was most affected by climate change, heatwave and floods; farmers suffered post-production losses, illegal shift of food commodities across the borders and ineffective input procurement and allocation systems. These economic instabilities have assisted prices instability, idle marketing system, hyper inflation and low purchasing power.
Population growth rate affects food security. This is the time for the Government of Pakistan to revise the National Food Policies at every level to avoid upcoming food insecurity and food shortage disasters. Timely supply of inputs, adequate formal credit system, effective utilization of land and water must be optimized urgently to improve production potentials.
Threatening Facts of Food Security due to Climate Change, Floods and Heatwaves:
Agriculture contribution to GDP has declined from 25.13% to 22.96% from 2011 to 2021 in Pakistan (Statista, 2022). This 2.23% decline in Agriculture production will have multiplicative effects and it will increase disaster of food security issue. Acquisition of agri-land by the real-estate business must be stopped on an urgent basis.
About 80% to 90% of Pakistan’s crops have been damaged by the floods 2022; with tomatoes and onions prices have increased by five times since the last 6 months. The inflation rate is now around 27% recorded in August. So all of this is a major cause of concern. These floods have severely impacted the agricultural sector of Pakistan which contributes about 23% of our GDP and 40% of our labour force directly or indirectly. These recent floods are going to create a severe food crisis for Pakistan in the coming years. According to the United Nations, almost 8000 farm animals have perished and about 2 million of crops and orchards have been hit by these floods.
It is also being estimated that roughly about 65% of the country’s food basket, particularly crops like rice, cotton, wheat, onions, chili, sugar cane, date trees and Mango trees have been washed away.
Sindh is badly affected by these floods. Sindh contributes over 50% of our rice exports. In 2022, about 80% of Sindh province is underwater. Southern Punjab, DG-Khan and Rajanpur and large portions of the Bologistan province are affected as well.
In Sindh, the wheat plantation season has started in October. And it’s nearly impossible to plant wheat crops in these conditions, as Sindh contributes almost 30% to 40% of total wheat production in Pakistan. severe heat-waves, untimely rainfalls has badly impacted on wheat production.
Pakistan is going to face a severe food crisis. About 40% of our population already faces chronic food insecurity. Pakistan’s total wheat demand is roughly about 30.8 million tons and to meet domestic demand and exports. About 39% of Pakistan’s wheat was being imported from Ukraine. The Russian-Ukraine war has blocked Black sea global supply chains. So there will be an intense rise in wheat flour prices in the international market, as flour prices have already increased about 60% since the war started. To overcome Global Food Crisis and climate change, Pakistani Government must take rapid adaptive measures for food security.
Pakistan introduced the first National Food Security Policy in 2018 to increase food availability, accessibility and sustainability. Its main goals were to eliminate poverty, hunger and malnutrition. Pakistan is at highest risk of food security. Gaps can be covered through sustainable food production systems, profitable climate resilient and competitive and to discourage exploitation of the farmers.
Pakistan and Global Hunger Index:
Research in Agriculture depends on urbanization rate, population growth rate, water availability rate, and R&D in food insecurity. Results of Kousar et al., (2021) shows that political stability is directly related to water resources and agriculture research for food insecurity; on the other hand political stability weakens urbanization and food insecurity relationships. Urbanization, low water security, political instability and low R&D interest has increased food insecurity in Pakistan.
According to the Global Hunger Index (GHI, 2022), Pakistan ranks 99th out of 121 countries. Undernourishment(Insufficient calorie intake), Child stunting(under height), Child wasting(underweight) and Child mortality(early death) are contents of GHI calculation. GHI explains about inadequate nutrition and unhealthy environments in children under 5 years.
This significant decline in GHI is very threatening. The Government of Pakistan must take proactive actions for improvement.
Issues to Align R&D and Policies:
Punjab Government has initiated some steps to utilize lands by providing these lands to agri-graduates. This policy will help to align education and agriculture in the short run and to align R&D in the long run for successful agricultural production. Protection of water resources has become a great problem. Researchers proposed restructuring of water reservoirs to save water resources.
Rich Soil of Punjab assists high crop yield and cultivation. But Performance Evaluation of R&D institutions must be aligned with policies. Pakistan is lacking in R&D introduction at every basic level of production. Pricing policies, supply demand gap evaluation and marketing & advertisement are not public-friendly. Farmers face many problems to meet all these challenges. Unsatisfactory performance of related institutions has increased price fluctuations, low quality and food shortages. Monitoring and supporting institutes has become unhelpful for farmers and the general public.
Direct communication, clear procurement & distribution system, National Storage Policy and transparent operations can solve many problems. Complaints and feedback management can reduce post-production losses and illegal movements of food.
Barrier and Areas of concern for Agri-production:
1- Middle man is the most dangerous barrier to distribution and exports. Middlemen should be minimized if it is not completely eliminated.
2- Technology access is a significant barrier to agriculture. So there must be easy availability of seed, fertilizer and technology, procurement & distribution systems through public-developed monitoring systems.
3- Illegal food drainage is another barrier to achieve National Food Policy. Stopping illegal mobility of food through the border Pakistan with Afghanistan and Iran must be addressed because they are unreported food losses.
4- Due to inflation, the purchasing power of the general public is declining as compared to their income levels. Government must take proactive actions and policies for stabilizing food supply & prices in local markets.
5- Pakistan has high dependence on foreign debts and imported energy resources. This dependence results in unexpected price shocks with higher production costs and higher food prices in the local market.
6- Political instability in Pakistan has always affected timely action plans. In 2007-2008, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. India reacted quickly towards price instability by banning exports of main foods like rice, wheat, and corn. But pakistan suffered 50% to 100% rise in these commodities (Hussain & Routray, 2012).
7- Location of Pakistan is the significant barrier towards agri-achievements. Climate change in Pakistan doesn’t mean that Pakistan is making all the pollution. Pakistan is located at the position which is most affected by the Natural Air Cycle and deforestation. All air pollutants from Chinese and Indian industries have destroyed many ecosystems of Pakistan. This all resulted in lack of production due to climate change, heatwaves, floods etc.
8- Agriculture & infrastructure damage by floods has reduced income opportunities. Floods of 2010 and 2022 have been a great disaster for Pakistan’s economy. Failure in reconstruction and rehabilitation of infrastructures has stopped agri-support services. Timely strategies and policies in developmental programs are necessary for agri-production.
9- 29 years of agri- data collection from 1991 to 2019, situations have proved that food security is a multi-dimensional phenomenon in Pakistan; Pakistan’s situation in food availability and utilization are below the thresholds (Rahman et al., 2022). So exact utilization of agri-production is required.
10- Pakistan must export finished products rather than raw material. For example, export of potato fries with proper branding rather than simple potatoes will contribute significantly to Pakistan’s GDP. Sweet corn, Carrots halwa, Imli Aloo Bukhara drink and desi green Chutney can be simple and potential export business.
References
GHI. (2022). [Global Hunger Index]. Retrieved Nov, 2022, from https://www.globalhungerindex.org/methodology.html
Hussain, A., & Routray, J. K. (2012). Status and factors of food security in Pakistan. International Journal of Development Issues, 11(2), 164 – 185. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/14468951211241146
Kousar, S., Ahmed, F., Pervaiz, A., & Bojnec, Š. (2021). Food Insecurity, Population Growth, Urbanization and Water Availability: The Role of Government Stability. 13(22). ; https://doi.org/10.3390/su132212336
Rahman, I. U., Khattak, S. W., Israr, M., & Hashim, S. (2022). A Multi-Dimensional Analysis of Food Security Situation in Pakistan: The Way Forward. Sarhad Journal of Agriculture, 38(1), 170-178. 10.17582/journal.sja/2022/38.1.170.178
Statista. (2022). Pakistan: Distribution of gross domestic product (GDP) across economic sectors from 2011 to 2021. Retrieved Nov, 2022, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/383256/pakistan-gdp-distribution-across-economic-sectors/#:~:text=In%202021%2C%20agriculture%20contributed%20around, came%20from%20the%20services%20sector.